Understanding Indian Govt attitude to Iran and Iraq wars

This is a collection of links for a geo-strategic analysis, and the economics of wars and allies. The author neither condones nor condemns current global dynamics in the balance of power.

nations don’t have friends or enemies…nations only have interests

In 2003

The war in Iraq had a unique Indian angle right at the beginning. Some members of the US administration felt they needed more troops in Iraq, and they started negotiating with India. Those negotiations broke down because the Indians wanted to fight under the UN flag and on MONEY!!

India wanted-

  • More money per soldier deployed,
  • more share in post War Oil Contracts,
  • better diplomatic subtlety
Govt changed in India due to elections in2003 (Muslim voters are critical in any govt forming majority party), and the Iraq war ran its tragic course without any Indian explicit support.
In 26 Nov 2008, Islamic Terrorists killed US, Indian and Israeli citizens in terror strikes in Mumbai Sieze- thus proving that appeasing terrorist nations is just riding a tiger.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2003-06-13/india/27203305_1_stabilisation-force-indian-troops-pentagon-delegation

NEW DELHI: There will be a lot a Iraq on the menu over the weekend before the Pentagon team arrives here on Monday to talk India into sending troops to the war-torn nation.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2003-07-28/india/27176989_1_troops-issue-stabilisation-force-defence-policy-group

Jul 28, 2003, 01.28pm IST

NEW DELHI: Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Richard B Myers, who is arriving here on Monday evening on a two-day visit, will request India to reconsider its decision on sending troops to Iraq.

and

Jul 29, 2003, 07.00pm IST

NEW DELHI: Though Gen Myers flatly denied his visit had anything to do with persuading India to send troops to Iraq, it is evident that the US desperately wants Delhi to contribute a division-level force of over 15,000 combat soldiers.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2003-09-10/india/27176101_1_stabilisation-force-force-under-american-control-regional-dialogue

Sep 10, 2003, 05.34pm IST

NEW DELHI: Even as the US-drafted resolution on Iraq is being heatedly debated in many countries, American Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christina Rocca held a series of meetings with External Affairs Ministry officials on Wednesday.

Though it was officially called “a regional dialogue”, the US request to contribute a division-level force of over 15,000 combat soldiers to the “stabilisation force” in Iraq is learnt to have figured in the discussions.

The penny wise -pound foolish attitude of then Def Secretary Rumsfield led to break down in negotiations.

“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Sir Winston Churchill

In 2012

Indian govt again faces elections and we have 150 million Muslim voters just like other countries have influential lobbies.

and while Israelis are being targeted again in attacks in India-

India is still seeking money-

India has struck a defiant tone over new financial sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union to punish Iran for its nuclear programme, coming up with elaborate trade and barter arrangements to pay for oil supplies.

However, the president of the All India Rice Exporters’ Association, said Monday’s attack on the wife of an Israeli diplomat in the Indian capital will damage trade with Iran and may complicate efforts to resolve an impasse over Iranian defaults on payments for rice imports worth around $150 million.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Unfazed-by-US-sanctions-India-to-step-up-ties-with-Iran/articleshow/11887691.cms

India buys $ 5  billion worth of oil from Iran. Annually. Clearly it is a critical financial trading partner to Iran.

It has now gotten extra sops from Iran to continue trading-and is now waiting for a sweeter monetary offer from US and/or Israel to even consider thinking about going through the pain of unchanging the inertia of ties with Iran.

There are some aspects of political corruption as well, as Indian political establishment  is notoriously prone to corruption by lobbyists (apparently there   is a global war on lobbyists that needs to happen)

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Unfazed-by-US-sanctions-India-to-step-up-ties-with-Iran/articleshow/11887691.cms

 Feb 14, 2012, 05.54PM ISTUnfazed by US sanctions, India to step up ties with Iran
India is set to ramp up its energy and business ties with Iran. (AFP Photo)
NEW DELHI: Unfazed by US sanctions and Israel linking Tehran to the attack on an Israeli embassy car here, India is set to ramp up its energy and business ties with Iran, with a commerce ministry team heading to Tehran to explore fresh business opportunities. 

The team is expected to go to Tehran later this month to discuss steps to expand India’s trade with Iran, part of a larger strategy to pay for Iranian oil, said highly-placed sources. 

Despite the US and European Union sanctions on Iran, India recently sealed a payment mechanism under which Indian companies will pay for 45 percent of their crude oil imports from Iran in rupees. 

So diplomats with argue over money in Israel, Indian and US while terrorists will kill.

Against Stupidity- The Gods Themselves -Contend in Vain

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C4ISTAR for Hacking and Cyber Conflict

As per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C4ISTAR

C2I stands for command, control, and intelligence.

C3I stands for command, control, communications, and intelligence.

C4I stands for command, control, communications, computers, and (military) intelligence.

C4ISTAR is the British acronym used to represent the group of the military functions designated by C4 (command, control, communications, computers), I (military intelligence), and STAR (surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance) in order to enable the coordination of operations

I increasingly believe that cyber conflict will develop its own terminology and theory and paradigms in due time. In the meantime, it will adopt paradigms from existing military literature and adapt it to the unique sub culture of cyber conflict for both offensive, defensive as well as pre-emptive actions. Here I am theorizing for a case of targeted hacking attacks rather than massive attacks that bring down a website for a few hours and achieve nothing but a few press headlines . I would also theorize on countering such attacks.

So what would be the C4ISTAR for -

1) Media company supporting SOPA/PIPA/Take down Mega Upload-

Command and Control refers to the ability of commanders to direct forces-

This will be the senior executives including the members of board, legal officers, and public relationship/marketing people. Their name is available from corporate websites, and social media scraping can ensure both a list of contact addresses (online) as well as biases for phishing /malware attacks. This could also include phone (flooding or voicemail hacking ) attacks , and attacks against the email server of the company rather than the corporate website.

Communications- This will include all online and social media channels including websites of the media company , but also  those of the press relations firms handling communications , phones,websites- anything which the target is likely to communicate externally (and if possible internal communication)

Timing is everything- coordinating attacks immediately is juevenile, but it might be more mature to attack on vulnerable days like product launches or just before a board of directors meeting

Intelligence-

Most corporates have an in-house research team, they can be easily targeted using social media channels, but also offline research and digging deep. Targeting intelligence corps of the target corporate is likely to produce a much better disruption. Eventually they can be persuaded to stop working for that corporate.

Computers- Anything that runs on electricity and can be disabled – should be disabled. This might require much more creativity than just flooding.

 surveillance-  This can be both online as well as offline, and would be of electronic assets, likely responses for the attack, and the key people who are to be disrupted.

target acquisition-  at least ten people within each corporate can and should be ideally disrupted, rather than just the website. this would call for social media scraping, and prior planning. even email in-boxes can be disrupted (if all else fails)

and reconnaissance-

study your target companies, target employees, and their strategies.

Then segment and prioritize in a list of  matrix of 10  to 10, who is more vulnerable and who is more valuable to attack.

the C4ISTAR for -a hacker activist organization is much more complicated but forensics reveal that most hackers tend to leave a signature style (in terms of computers,operating systems,machine ids,communication, tools, or even port numbers used)

the best defense for a media rich company to prevent hacking attacks is to first identify its own C4ISTAR structure for its digital content strategy and then fortify as well as scrub vulnerabilities (including from online information regarding its own employees)

(to be continued)

http://www.catb.org/~esr/faqs/hacker-howto.html

The Hacker Attitude

SAS Institute Financials 2011

SAS Institute has release it’s financials for 2011 at http://www.sas.com/news/preleases/2011financials.html,

Revenue surged across all solution and industry categories. Software to detect fraud saw a triple-digit jump. Revenue from on-demand solutions grew almost 50 percent. Growth from analytics and information management solutions were double digit, as were gains from customer intelligence, retail, risk and supply chain solutions

AJAY- and as a private company it is quite nice that they are willing to share so much information every year.

The graphics are nice ( and the colors much better than in 2010) , but pie-charts- seriously dude there is no way to compare how much SAS revenue is shifting across geographies or even across industries. So my two cents is – lose the pie charts, and stick to line graphs please for the share of revenue by country /industry.

In 2011, SAS grew staff 9.2 percent and reinvested 24 percent of revenue into research and development

AJAY- So that means 654 million dollars spent in Research and Development.  I wonder if SAS has considered investing in much smaller startups (than it’s traditional strategy of doing all research in-house and completely acquiring a smaller company)

Even a small investment of say 5-10 million USD in open source , or even Phd level research projects could greatly increase the ROI on that.

That means

Analyzing a private company’s financials are much more fun than a public company, and I remember the words of my finance professor ( “dig , dig”) to compare 2011 results with 2010 results.

http://www.sas.com/news/preleases/2010financials.html

The percentage invested in R and D is exactly the same (24%) and the percentages of revenue earned from each geography is exactly the same . So even though revenue growth increased from 5.2 % to 9% in 2011, both the geographic spread of revenues and share  R&D costs remained EXACTLY the same.

The Americas accounted for 46 percent of total revenue; Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) 42 percent; and Asia Pacific 12 percent.

Overall, I think SAS remains a 35% market share (despite all that noise from IBM, SAS clones, open source) because they are good at providing solutions customized for industries (instead of just software products), the market for analytics is not saturated (it seems to be growing faster than 12% or is it) , and its ability to attract and retain the best analytical talent (which in a non -American tradition for a software company means no stock options, job security, and great benefits- SAS remains almost Japanese in HR practices).

In 2010, SAS grew staff by 2.4 percent, in 2011 SAS grew staff by 9 percent.

But I liked the directional statement made here-and I think that design interfaces, algorithmic and computational efficiencies should increase analytical time, time to think on business and reduce data management time further!

“What would you do with the extra time if your code ran in two minutes instead of five hours?” Goodnight challenged.

Top 7 Business Strategy Models

Some Models I use for Business Strategy- to analyze the huge reams of qualitative and uncertain data that business generates.

  1. Porters 5 forces Model-To analyze industries
  2. BCG Matrix- To analyze Product Portfolios
  3. Porters Diamond Model- To analyze locations
  4. McKinsey 7 S Model-To analyze teams
  5. Gernier Theory- To analyze growth of organization
  6. Herzberg Hygiene Theory- To analyze soft aspects of individuals
  7. Marketing Mix Model- To analyze marketing mix.

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